Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Southeast Iran

E. Rezabeigi-Davarani; N. Nasiri; B. Kermani; M. Mohammadkhani; M. Nakhaeizadeh; R. Faryabi; V. Meshayekhi; S. Daneshi

Scientific Journal of Medical Sciences. 2023;2(3): 103-108.

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Descriptive Study

Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Southeast Iran

E. Rezabeigi-Davarani ¹, N. Nasiri ², B. Kermani ³, M. Mohammadkhani ⁴, M. Nakhaeizadeh ², R. Faryabi ⁵, V. Meshayekhi ⁵, S. Daneshi ⁵^*

¹ “Student Research Committee” and “Department of Health Management, Faculty of Management and Medical Information Sciences”, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
² Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
³ Department of Ophthalmology, School of Medicine, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Jiroft, Iran
⁴ Department of Health Management, School of Management and Medical Informatics, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
⁵ Department of Public Health, School of Health, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Jiroft, Iran

*Corresponding Author: Tel: +98 (344) 3318336 Fax: +98 (344) 3318337 Post Address: Department of Public Health, School of Health, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Haj Qasim Soleimani Boulevard, Jiroft, Iran. Postal Code: 7861756447, Email: salmandaneshi008@gmail.com

Abstract

Aims: COVID-19 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) of the coronaviridae family. This disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China; however, it has caused a global pandemic. This study was aimed to investigate the basic reproduction number (R₀), epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients in Jiroft, Kerman, Iran.
Materials & Methods: This prospective, cross-sectional study was conducted during March-August 2020 on COVID-19 patients (positive RT-PCR) of the Jiroft population. Patients were followed for their epidemiological and clinical outcomes. The basic reproduction number was calculated, and the serial interval was modeled as a gamma distribution.
Findings: Among 6550 highly suspicious patients, 3003 were positive for COVID-19. There were significant differences in clinical characteristics between outpatients and inpatients individuals. Early in the epidemic, the Rt was >2, which decreased to <1 until 19 April, when many interventions were implemented in Iran. The Rt increased to >1 from April until mid-June, but it reduced to <1 in July, and the epidemic was controlled.
Conclusion: We estimated that R₀ at the beginning of the epidemic in March 2020 was more than two, which reached to under one in July 2020. Identifying the clinical and epidemiological aspects of COVID-19 helps manage this disease in Iran and other parts of the world.

Keywords: COVID-19 [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/205217, SARS-CoV-2 [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/2052, Epidemics [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/68058, Basic Reproduction Number [https://www.ncbi.nlm.ni